Merge lane base check: develop 098aaa44967a

Merge lane base check: run the full gate on `develop` at `098aaa44967afe3d884e636ca67608e8d8bad6e1` alone and report it certified or red: nothing had certified it since the last attempt. A red verdict files a fix task; it never holds the lane. Filed by the control plane (`app/merge_lane.py::_certify_idle`). How: run `python3 tools/merge_lane.py run` once. It takes this check's batch, gates that commit with the full gate in its sandbox and reports `certified` or `develop_red` itself. Never run the gate by hand: a hand-run green reports nothing, so no certificate is recorded.

develop 098aaa44 red (develop_red reported): e2e access-tabs:113 + access-requests:106 seed POST /api/accounts → 422 "rejected this API key" — new live key probe from c9630a58ee (Task 11514). Memory: none applied.